Where is the EU heading? There is a ‘disconnect” between the political elites and the citizens in the Union. The European political elites, who give the impression of being controlled by bankers, are in control of the legislatures. The nations of the EU are being managed to pay the bankers back for their loans by way of austerity measures placed upon each nation. The problem is that the citizens after 50 years of socialism’s do not like austerity programs. Denial is everywhere evident in both the elite politicians and the citizens. The elite want to maintain the union by doing the bankers’ bidding whereas the citizens are not so certain. The elites are in denial about the many disconnects across Europe such as the unemployment rate for the under 30 citizens that approaches 60% in several nations and the lack of support for the austerity measures.
The concept of integration of nations across Europe is viewed differently by different peoples depending upon their economy. For instance in the north the Germans and Nordic nations are industrialized and meeting their bills. They view nations that are not as lazy. They view integration as giving them oversight authority over other nations since they are paying the bills. They are tired of bailing out the southern states. The southern states do not want German bankers running their countries. They still remember WWII.
The EU will probably disintegrate but it will not be as before. Rather regionalization of blocks of nations will likely occur.
Germany is central to the crises. They have industrial capacity that exceeds consumption; therefore, they need customers. Germany does not want Greece to leave the union nor do they want to pay for more socialism. Therein lies the dilemma. According to Ron Paul the Europeans represented by their supra national bank, the ESM, “borrowed” $1.2 trillion from the FED that was required to shore up banks’ balance sheets. It they do not pay this back, American Citizens will since the FED cannot.
Another question for the EU is the fact that Russia and Germany are forming closer alliances. Germany gets most of its energy from Russia. Russia gets most of its high technology goods from Germany. Who is NATO supposed to fight? Nations looking for America to defend them are finding less support than before because of the broke America.
Basic survival questions are facing the EU. Who pays the bills? What to do about unemployment? What to do about defense? Who are they defending against? For an investor it is a time for caution especially when the G20 Bail Ins are beginning to expand. Germany must maintain the rhetoric of maintaining the union while at the same time refusing to pay the PIIGS bills.