War with North Korea Possible Scenario

The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting. Sun Tzu

The object of war is not to die for your country but to make the other bastard die for his. George S. Patton

SOVEREIGN STATE OF NORTH KOREA

Recent events related to North Korea have led me to believe that the US may declare a preemptive strike against North Korea before the end of the year.

Let us look at what has been bothering me –

Geopolitical Events affecting this situation – CHINA

• China is having a Communist Party 5 year event in October where the next Premier will be chosen.   It appears that Xi Jinpiang may want to stay another 5 years.  If so, he would be pulling what Vladimir Putin did in Russia – change the constitution. e
  • Xi Jinpiang may extend his reign from 10 years to 15 years.  This would give him enough time to establish the Chinese Silk Road as an ongoing 20-year development program.
  • Xi Jinpiang may defacto extend his reign by personally choosing his successor tor the next 10 year reign by choosing the voters within the Chinese communist party that is voting on his successor. He has already done this.
• China wants to keep everything stable until after the Chinese Party 5 year conference.
• The meeting of Trump and Xi in Florida was for 31/2 hours.  They both felt that it went well.   Trump had to have brought up North Korea as a sore spot and asked Xi to handle it.
  • 90 days after the Florida meeting, Trump stated that China was not handling the North Korea problem. This implies that Trump will have to do something about it.
• China and Russia have given North Korea a threatening order.  Stop all missile launches and stop nuclear testing.  This is the prime mover event.  China says that if they do not, then they will stop buying coal from North.Korea.  Today, Nor Korea had GDP of $10.5 billion and they get $4.5 billion of this from shipments of coal to China.   This is forceful coal diplomacy meaning money.  North Korea uses the $4.5 billion today to fund  their nuclear research and missile launches.
• Alternatively, Xi must have brought up the new Chinese Silk road – “Path Road” – and wanted Trump’s participation.  For the first time, subsequent to the Florida meeting, Trump sent a high level Trump administration official to the Chinese led conference of all contenders – over 100 countries – related to the Path Road.
  • First time
  • Official recognition that it exists
  • Got details of progress – which is significant
  • Project is being funded by China
    • $20 trillion
    • 50 year loans at low interest
    • Chinese engineering and operations
    • Chinese financial help
    • Chinese help in building infrastructure of ports, electric generation and transmission facilities, rail facilities, road pipelines and fiber networks.
• China moved 150,000 troops to the North Korean border July 20, 2017.

Geopolitical Events affecting this situation – US

• Trump said that the 31/2 hour meeting was very productive.
• Trump has not mentioned the Chinese Path Road in the press
• Trump did mention that China did not take care of North Korea, their neighbor.
• US issued order about July 15, 2017 – – – All Americans should leave N. Korea and no travel would be permitted to North Korea.
• US 9^th Fleet have been moved to Indonesia.
• No official response to missile launches of North Korea
  • The launches have been going higher – means further reach
  • Latest launch of July 20 was 2,500 miles in height, which means it can reach intercontinental missile range. Delivery capability now exists to do meaningful harm to US.
• CNN announced that Nike Haley, UN ambassador noted the launch.  US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley warned lawmakers last month that the North Korea’s missile program may be advancing ahead of previous estimates that put Kim’s unpredictable regime three to five years away from achieving its ambition of being able to deliver a nuclear weapon to the US.
• US Response to Jung Un has come from US Chief of staff

• Joseph Dunford, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, warned that escalating tensions between the two countries would lead to a devastating loss of life in a war he described as “horrific”.
• He told the Aspen Security Forum: “Many people have talked about military options against North Korea with words like ‘unimaginable.
• In actuality, the US could remove all the nuclear capability of N. Korea with both conventional and nuclear weapons. No one knows the choice at this time.

• In the US, the Resistance / Clinton / Soros network has affected Congress. The Congress Senate 722 Act is a direct congressional attack on Russia and Donald Trump.
• The US government will reach is maximum budget limit of $20 trillion in October. An event is needed to break that constraint and allow Trump to do his infrastructure improvement and defense spending repair.

• General Joseph Dunford warned of massive loss of life in a war with North Korea (Rex)

 “It would be a loss of life unlike any we have experienced in our lifetimes and I mean anyone who’s been alive since World War II has never seen the loss of life that could occur if there’s a conflict on the Korean Peninsula.”

 “It is not unimaginable to have military options to respond to North Korean nuclear capability.  What’s unimaginable to me is allowing a capability that would allow a nuclear weapon to land in Denver, Colorado.

“So my job will be to develop military options to make sure that doesn’t happen.”

• The Jong Un government official position is

“The DPRK (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) legally stipulates that if the supreme dignity (Kim Jong-Un) of the DPRK is threatened, it must preemptively annihilate those countries and entities that are directly or indirectly involved in it, by mobilizing all kinds of strike means including the nuclear ones. Should the US dare to show even the slightest sign of attempt to remove our supreme leadership, we will strike a merciless blow at the heart of the US with our powerful nuclear hammer, honed and hardened over time,”  State of North Korea announcement, July 27, 2017 

• Kim Jong Un tested a missile last month that is capable of reaching Hawaii (Rex)

In June, North Korean leader Kim Jong UN tested an intercontinental ballistic missile, that South Korea’s defense ministry said could have a range of up to 6,500 miles.

North Korea has warned Donald Trump that it will soon be capable of launching a nuclear attack on New York City.

The claim was made in state-run newspaper Rodong Sinmun, which speaks for North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s regime.

Geopolitical Events affecting this situation – North Korea

• Jung Un is a dictator the runs his nation as if it were his private compound.
• Jung Un has had a series of intercontinental launches with one as high as 2,500 demonstrating that they could send a Nuclear device thousands of miles.
• NK has demonstrated nuclear capability – even though limited.
• News reports on North Korea  show that launches.
• NK has now demonstrated delivery capability – even though limited – from movable launch pads.
  • The Minuteman missile initially was conceived of being fired from movable transporter erector trucks.
  • The Idea was developed and the Minuteman could have been fired from those trucks – that existed.
  • The idea was abandoned because it was felt the too many “nuts” existed and all it would take is one who fired a high-powered rifle into the side of these trucks.  That would explode the Minuteman and cause havoc in the community where the event took place.
• Jung Un is a dictator so he must show a rooster type of mental image to his subdued subjects or they could rise up against him.  Tempting the US with blustery threats is expected as the norm.
• Life in North Korea for the ordinary citizen is like living in a prison camp.

The abuse North Korea inflicted on Otto Warmbier, the American student who died this week after returning home to the U.S. following more than a year of imprisonment, is something up to 120,000 North Koreans regularly experience in the country’s concentration camps, according to defectors and analysts.

One example is Jun Heo, a teenager when he was sent to one of the country’s concentration camps, told Fox News that being beaten black and blue and tortured within an inch of your life was routine. There were about 20 people stuffed into each small cell, he said. The men and women were separated, unless a woman had a baby son. Everyone over the age of 17 was forced to work hard labor in farms from 6:30 a.m. until at least 8 p.m. Cries and screams became the soundtrack of life, but it was after nightfall when the most excruciating howls could be heard, Heo said.

Prisoners, trying to sleep, would wail in pain as their bony bodies broke down from starvation, while at midnight the “secret police” came to take women to be raped.

His crime was that he fled to China for a chance at a better life. It was November 2005 and Heo — plus 12 other defectors — crossed into China and was staying in a “broker’s house” in Beijing. The broker ordered the North Koreans to not leave the house, citing safety reasons. It was a lie.  On Dec. 6, the day before he turned 14, a barrage of Chinese policemen — armed with guns captured them and returned them to North Korea.

North Korea uses a threat against the Chinese, that if they do not support the North Koreans, that the government will open the border and over a million North Koreans will flood China.  China does not want this.

Geopolitical Events affecting this situation – Global

• Other countries are affected if North Korea decided to use its Nuclear power and delivery capability as an international threat.
• China, Russia, Japan and India all have major metropolitan centers within reach of a North Korean 5,000-mile radius.
• The US is now officially exposed and threatened by Jung Un.
• North Korea probably has a few nuclear warheads and even fewer delivery vehicles.
• Other nations are expecting the US to contain and control this menace.

 

CONCLUSIONS

The above defines those parameters of an international hot spot.  Now let us review what in my mind will likely happen.

1. US and China will do nothing but get prepared before November 1, 2017.
2. China will await outcome of Communist Party 5 year conference – Who will be Premier – – Xi or someone else.
3. China has used Coal Diplomacy to stop North Korea.  They have stopped all buying of coal from North Korea.  My view is that this is working and will stop the North Korean nonsense.  In the Phoenix speech on August 22, 2017, Donald Trump held out an olive leaf offer to North Korea to come to the negotiating table.  He said there is some hope.
4. Prepare
   1. US plans for a detailed attack on all nuclear and delivery capability in North Korea.
   2. China move 150,000 troops to North Korean border to repel escaping North Koreans when they try to enter China
   3. US mover 9^th fleet to within striking distance of North Korea.
   4. US financial sanctions on North Korea.
   5. US get South Korean Army and US Army (25,000) prepared to repulse or invade.
5. Launch Preemptive attack to destroy North Korean nuclear and launch capability
   1. Kill Jong Un and his government if possible
   2. Free North Korea if possible
   3. Unite North and South Korea if possible.
   4. Get Congress to release $20 T budget constraint to $30 Trillion.
   5. Rebuild military on war footing.
   6. Refocus America on infrastructure rebuild and put people back to work

 

Result will be peace in South East Asia and removal of an erratic nuclear threat from an unstable dictator.

I do not believe that we will go to war with North Korea.  Rather, I believe that China and Russia contained the threat with the coal diplomacy.  Further, I believe Donald Trump will arrange some sort of deal with North Korea after the October Chinese Communist meetings take place.