CHINA AND THE US. AND THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE

The South China Sea has been one of the political hotspots in the global geopolitical environment.  Want to examine and source of the political conflict.[i]

Briefly, China has asserted that the South China Sea conveyors. It is been theirs for thousands of years.   To make the point strong they have created artificial islands in the South China Sea and put military installations on these islands.   For the last hundred years, the the nations adjacent to th this Sea have declared internationally that 12 miles into the sea is bears and they can control the assets contained in that sea out to 200 miles.   The Chinese government says not anymore.   On that basis. They have aggressively created islands and military installations and in care themselves into the South China Sea commerce sector.   This has created a conflict with the United States since they were the origin of “free Sea” as well as the protector of most of the nations that are adjacent to the China sea and are now complaining.  This is one hot spot that could end up in a shooting incident..

Look to the money – today, we know that there are vast amounts of minerals, gas, oil, below the China sea.   Therefore, anyone who has the right to my remove these minerals will have a major economic bonanza.   China wants to do this.  First, they must establish that they own the sea.. This is what they have done with their claims, but it has not been recognized by the U.S. or other nations of the earth.  Accordingly, conflict exists.   The major contenders in this conflict is the United States versus China.   Just look at the history.

In 1913, a US politician, Woodrow Wilson, the president of the United States, made a speech that included his famous 14 points in which he advocated the freedom of the seats.  The freedom of the seas means that sovereign nations adjacent to the seat no longer own them.  This was not covered by international law until 1982.  In 1982 United Nations convention on the Law of the Sea that stripped millions of square miles of ocean territories from their historic owners.

During the 20^th century, Americans were encouraged to believe that freedom of the seas is an ancient ethical principles similar to freedom of speech, religion, press and assembly.  However, in fact, it was nothing more than a socialistic brain fantasy.  President Wilson’s error was the high point of Socialist theory. Socialism seeks to do away with private property. It places all of the earth surface in the hands of the politicians and bureaucrats of a single world government. Marx wrote, “you approach us with intending to do away with your property. Precisely so;: that is just what we intend.”

Wilson was innately a socialist..  He encouraged the income tax and saw the birth of the Federal Reserve; further, his 14 points stripped ownership of the adjacent seas of sovereign nations from their grasp and put them in the general world government’s hands.  He firmly believed that governing should be done by bureaucrats who have the privilege of intervening in the life of the individual or the sovereign nation when ever in their “expert” opinion this is necessary. He was a strong centrist governor.

In retrospect, one can look upon Pres. Wilson’s actions and speeches and discern that he was interested in a single world government owning everything and everybody.  Wilson’s Freedom of the seas idea  coupled with the League of Nations is the basis for this statement. He was a socialist visionary in an office of a capitalist nation.  Accordingly, he got few things through the Congress.

Since 1913, the U.S. Navy was and is tasked with helping to implement this plan for the freedom of the seas.  In short, the U.S. Navy’s main purpose is to be an instrument of socialist policy created by Wilson a century ago.

Because of this policy, which is the taking away of someone’s territory, we have had many political conflicts.  Taking away territory has always been considered an act of war.  In 1986. Libya’s Muammar Qaddafi put his Air Force and Navy against those of Washington.  Reagan made an example of an example of him. He sank four of his vessels and bombed his palace.

This policy has created conflicts globally –

• Iran considers the Persian Gulf as their property.  They owned it for 25 centuries.  They want it back
• India wants the Bay of  Bengal back
• Philippines wants the Philippines Sea
• Japan wants the Sea of Japan
• Argentina wants the San Jorge Gulf
• Russia wants Barents Sea, Kara Sea, Laptev Sea and the Chukchi Sea.
• The US politicians and the UN have decided that property rights are legitimate when they apply to the soil and rocks but not to the sea.  Beyond 200 miles from the shore, the nation sovereignty ends for economic purposes..  Beyond 12 miles a nation sovereignty ends to control.

CHINA’S POSITION

China always works cautiously and over extended periods of time.   I could be wrong here, but it appears that the Chinese rulers have decided to challenge and overturn Wilson’s plan.  They want their ocean territories back and are going about it gradually, hoping to avoid a full-blown battle with the U.S. Navy.  At this point, it appears that they are very determined.  Consequently, shooting could start. If Washington continues trying to enforce freedom of the seas upon them.  At that point, the Congress will be faced with a major test – with a “drop the freedom of the seas” or face a battle?

If the US retaliates things will go from bad to worse very rapidly.  China does not have the military strength of the United States nor the delivery capability. However, they do have enough to be devastating to the US residential areas and military establishments.  No country can stop all the missiles.   Bill Clinton gave critical software to the Chinese government over the objections of the his entire security apparatus.   I considered his action bridging on treasonous at the time.   In turn, he got donations to the Democratic National committee for millions of dollars.  This transaction was never investigated but should have been, and could have resulted in treason indictments upon the president of the United States.  The incident used blatant positional power of the presidency to override the security of the United States against the objections of every security organizations that the US government had.   But he won the battle and the citizens are less safe. 

Beijing has been obvious for decades and has plans to negate Wilson’s socialist fantasy.  Now they have done it.   It is an allusion for our politicians to hold of Japan as a friend, who could take on the Chinese government.  This is nonsense.  Consider the following –

Military Asset                         Tokyo                  Beijing

Main Battle Tanks                 679                      7716

Ground Attack Aircraft        290                      1527

Air Superiority Fighters         290                      1125

Number of Personnel           310,000               2.7 million

Submarines                               17                        73

It would be a “no contest” in any military confrontation. Japan has written into their constitution that they can only arm for self-defense.  They have abided by that since U.S. has sworn in treaties to protect them.

Any confrontation between the U.S. and China must face “lines of supply”.  The Chinese have hundreds of yards where the U.S. has thousands of miles.

Let’s look at the political situation.  The politicians of China, N. Korea and Russia must never show weakness or they could face revolution and overthrow of their regimes.  These men are in office because they psychologically must win and have power. They will do anything or say anything to maintain themselves in power.  They will even kill their own citizens with starvation as has been done in Russia and China.   It is in their genes.  They cannot show weakness with rational politicians from DC.

Current economic sanctions on Russia, N.Korea and China are negative on the populations but not the rulers.  It makes the rulers choice of fighting back with real bullets an easier choice that their people would support. Japan is rich and poorly defended.. It will serve as a juicy target for an aggressive Chinese military.  It is almost a reversal of what happened in the 1905 war between China and Japan.  Japan took on a poorly defended China and won.  And, Chinese resentment for that loss still remains. 

Conclusion

Today, Beijing’s military could inflict major damage to our US Navy.   In the Taiwan strait, their land based missiles could  wipe out any Navy Ships we could place there.  They have the missiles; they just have to decide to use them.    Many of the rich Chinese elite are aware of how dangerous the situation has become.  A 2017 survey found that 46% of the wealthy Chinese living in China are thinking about emigrating.

The situation have become so strained that one should look for investment opportunities.  The most obvious is Huntington Ingalls, Inc.(HII), the major US shipbuilder.  Expect sales and profits to rise dramatically.

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[i] Richard J. Maybury, Early Warning Report, “Adapting to and profiting from the Collapse of the federal government’s empire, July 2018,  The ideas for this article stem from the Maybury commentary